It should be NW... the two directions where the numbers for X and Z decrease in size.
I ended up testing it since I wasn't sure if it took northwest as how it appears on the map or which directions go positive. It is in regards to the map, going northwest as you say.
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http://www.minecraftwiki.net/wiki/Mob_spawner#Spawning_behavior
From that corner anyway...
if it is negative it would be when it gets bigger... basically...
Ethos and docm77 explain quite well in their series on you tube...
I ended up testing it since I wasn't sure if it took northwest as how it appears on the map or which directions go positive. It is in regards to the map, going northwest as you say.