If you worked for months solid, and finally managed to earn enough money to buy that new computer you've been wanting for so long, when you buy it, you feel proud, satisfied and you'd love this computer..
Were as if you just bought it with no work.. it would get boring very quickly and move onto the next thing you wanted at the time.. eventually you'd have a whole house, full of useless crap wondering what to do next..
I'm not denying your point, life would be awesome, but after a while things will go down hill
To put it into another term.. think of a game, any game.. and you play through the game two times
Once - You do an entire playthrough, 100% legit, it takes a long time, it's a tough, frustrating journey but you finally beat it, you must know this feeling? it's a good feeling
Then you play through the same game, and just cheat every level, every item and breeze through the game in 1/100th of the time, you still get to the end, but you feel nowhere near as satisfied and you're bored, once again, waiting for the next instalment to come out
I know you said "not in video games" but it's more similar than you'd think
I don't believe probability increases it'd remain 50% regardless of how many times you pushed it, that's like saying if you flip a coin once, and it lands on heads, it has a 75% chance of landing on tails next? nope, the odds reset after each press..
If you flipped twice then it'd be a 75% chance of getting a tails.
You guys are wimps, go for the $100 million
50% chance for 100 million items of the MickeyD dollar menu > 100% chance for 1 million items of the MickeyD dollar menu
Uh.. Going off that logic, the third flip is 100% tails
That type of probability only applies to set numbers, i.e 10 red balls in a bag, 1 yellow ball, with each reach into the bag / retreaval of the ball the probability of picking the yellow ball increases
We're talking about a single object, both sides have an equal chance of landing, it is indeed possible to flip a coin 100 times and never get tails, it would be crazy unlucky but possible..
I'd pick the $1,000,00 dollars, just because I need money garunteed right now more than anything else...but maybe, I could use it to gain my own honest profit up to $100,000,000 anyway. Still though, if I didnt need the money so badly i'd take the second chance.
Uh.. Going off that logic, the third flip is 100% tails
That type of probability only applies to set numbers, i.e 10 red balls in a bag, 1 yellow ball, with each reach into the bag / retreaval of the ball the probability of picking the yellow ball increases
We're talking about a single object, both sides have an equal chance of landing, it is indeed possible to flip a coin 100 times and never get tails, it would be crazy unlucky but possible..
No, he is measuring the chance that a single probability can appear over x trials. If you flipped a coin twice, there is a 75% chance of getting a single tails. Three times, you have an 87.5% chance. The probability never reaches 100% - there is always the unlucky guy who flips hundreds of coins and never gets a tails, or in this case, $100 million.
One flip: 50%, two: 75%. three: 87.5%, four: 93.75%, five: 96.875%, six: 98.4375%, etc.
100 * |0.5x - 1| models the probability.
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Some people really need to stay away from the government propaganda department. Let the brain-washing machines have a day off, they must need maintenance by now.
I guess you're right.
50% chance against, 50%2=25%, 100-25=75
If you flipped twice then it'd be a 75% chance of getting a tails.
Blood Diamonds?
50% chance for 100 million items of the MickeyD dollar menu > 100% chance for 1 million items of the MickeyD dollar menu
Umm no, the third flip would be 87.5% tails.
Going back on track, I would take the 50%, you started out with nothing.
Meh.
Now, going off my logic the next flip would be 87.5%.
You're looking at each individual flip, I'm looking at the overall probability of tails showing up once over x amount of flips.
No, he is measuring the chance that a single probability can appear over x trials. If you flipped a coin twice, there is a 75% chance of getting a single tails. Three times, you have an 87.5% chance. The probability never reaches 100% - there is always the unlucky guy who flips hundreds of coins and never gets a tails, or in this case, $100 million.
One flip: 50%, two: 75%. three: 87.5%, four: 93.75%, five: 96.875%, six: 98.4375%, etc.
100 * |0.5x - 1| models the probability.
Either way, I'm sticking with $1,000,000.
Actually you would have a 50% chance to get 200 million...
Press the 50% chance button, I do not need the money so might as well go for it.
Could care less if I win or not.
1,000,000 for me please. Then I could still build my supercomputer and run battlefield 3 on max settings.
Btw to anyone who reads this what would you do with 1,000,000/100,000,000?