Whenever a day passes, it sells 1 more, so the cumulative amount increases. So cumulative graphs can make something look like it's growing when it's really not.
If cumulative graph is curving up, that means later years have more sales than earlier years. If it's linear, then it's selling the same amount each year. If it's curving down, then later years have less sales than earlier years. If it's declining, then it sold a negative amount at some point, which I don't think is possible.
Not a mathematician, per se, but this interested me a bit.
While what you say may be true as far as sales themselves, don't you also have to consider other factors? Life isn't a vaccuum, and eventually, time passing (hype dying down) and the fact that there is a finite number of people (market saturation) come into play. While it may be true from one standpoint to say sales aren't "increasing" per se (I do not know Minecraft's sales so I'm not speaking of them literally) just because the curve doesn't trend upward, other factors need to be evaluated too, and on the whole, the continued success of this game this much later is truly amazing to me regardless.
There's also another view that, from the second something is concieved, it is dying, as eventually everything will, and the passing of time moves it closer to that. So, even if sales are upward now, it is still "dying".
Another view is that regardless of the sales, Minecraft itself IS growing if it retains a constant sales per day/week/month/year/whatever. Presuming 100 sales per day (constant), A player base of community of 1,000 people on day 10 is more than 500 people on day 5. Sure, it may work out that the rate at which the community size doubles dramatically drops at first, and then less so as time goes on (that's math, for you?), it's just in how you look at it.
Just many different ways to look at something. Informative post, but just wanted to offer up that (albeit perhaps somewhat incorrect) when others say "sales are increasing or indicating this", they may simply mean it in a way to show the game isn't in or near some drastic doom and gloom dying phase, because we've been hearing this for years (literally since 2012 when I joined and likely earlier). As always, it's the specific people, their circles, their views, etc. that have moved on, and hearing confirmation from others (and arguing those who disagree) helps put their own opinion at ease that they are over it. Collectively, this has been and still is one of the largest video game successes I have ever seen.
...because we've been hearing this for years (literally since 2012 when I joined and likely earlier).
This is the oldest thread I could find (there could be older ones) that was clearly about the game being dead/dying with mods, updates not adding enough content, and personal boredom with the game all mentioned - and the game wasn't even fully released yet (the current version was Beta 1.7.2):
This is the oldest thread I could find (there could be older ones) that was clearly about the game being dead/dying with mods, updates not adding enough content, and personal boredom with the game all mentioned - and the game wasn't even fully released yet (the current version was Beta 1.7.2):
The game isn't selling the same amount every year. If anything its selling more. Again, scroll through previous posts for that information.
Its sales still aren't increasing very much according to the graph (though I do admit the graph isn't up-to-date). So if you had a product that sold 2 copies by the end of year 1 and 3 copies by the end of year 2, then you sold 1 copy between year 1 and year 2, right? I'm applying that logic to the graph.
After looking at the graph using an image editor, I found that the line when up by these numbers of pixels each year.
2012: 95 pixels
2013: 108 pixels
2014: 94 pixels
2015: 89 pixels
The graph's scale is 5000000 copies to 111 pixels, so these are the copies sold per year.
2012: 4279279 copies
2013: 4864865 copies
2014: 4234234 copies
2015: 4009009 copies
So between 2012 and 2015, the copies sold each year actually decreased slightly. Of course, I don't have good information for 2016 or 2017, so Minecraft could possibly have gotten back on track during those 2 years.
So between 2012 and 2015, the copies sold each year actually decreased slightly. Of course, I don't have good information for 2016 or 2017, so Minecraft could possibly have gotten back on track during those 2 years.
And when will you realize that graph is only for Java edition, which represents a tiny fraction of all sales and the player base these days (and actually has fallen behind since 2012)?
Check out this statement from an article last year:
Mojang also announced today that Minecraft currently has 55 million monthly active players, an increase of 37.5 percent from the 40 million that Microsoft reported back in June. It’s possible that the recent release of version 1.0 of Minecraft’s Windows 10 Edition and Pocket Edition — the former is essentially a port of the latter — helped raise the number of monthly active users. Mojang released the Ender Update for those versions in mid-December, officially bringing them out of beta.
They clearly attribute continued increases in sales and player counts to the Windows 10 / Bedrock edition. How else can you explain an increase of 34 million monthly active players since June 2016 - when Java has only sold 28.5 million copies altogether (and how many of those have moved on to Windows 10; the free copy that you can get does not count towards sales)?
In my eyes, the Win10 was effort to ween off existing players and new players off Java so MS didn't have pay Orcale the owners of Java any kind money and keep total control of their multi-million dollar game they paid perhaps WAY TOO MUCH FOR.
Sure, Java isn't most stable software out there. It could be exploited if your not careful, but it ability to be made into so much more. I'm only heard that C+++ version of Minecraft aka Win10 is not easy at all to modify. MS does have history of not liking people monkey around with ThEIR CODE.
I'm actually surprised 1.13 is coming out for Java at all.
Minecraft has reached over 100 million registered users in China less than 12 months after it launched.
Published by tech giant NetEase, in collaboration with Microsoft, the free-to-play downloads are in addition to the 144 million sales figure announced earlier this year, putting Minecraft on around 250 million downloads worldwide.
In all honesty it sounds like people who claim that the game is dying are just trying to use that to justify their own burnout of the game. Burnout is normal after extended amounts of play time. I started playing the game a few weeks before the 1.6 update dropped over five years ago, and in that time I've taken multiple breaks from the game, or tried out different mod packs and such. There are very few games out there that are still even popular after years of development since launch. Things get stale every now and then. Take a step back. Go play some different games. Maybe try the game again in a few months. Or don't come back at all. But don't just assume the game is a lost cause because of it. Yes, the golden era of the game is gone, and while many of the og youtubers who made content about the game are gone, that doesn't mean new ones haven't taken their place. And while everything with youtube has signaled the end of an era for many, that doesn't mean a new, better one, can't arise.
In all honesty it sounds like people who claim that the game is dying are just trying to use that to justify their own burnout of the game. Burnout is normal after extended amounts of play time. I started playing the game a few weeks before the 1.6 update dropped over five years ago, and in that time I've taken multiple breaks from the game, or tried out different mod packs and such. There are very few games out there that are still even popular after years of development since launch. Things get stale every now and then. Take a step back. Go play some different games. Maybe try the game again in a few months. Or don't come back at all. But don't just assume the game is a lost cause because of it. Yes, the golden era of the game is gone, and while many of the og youtubers who made content about the game are gone, that doesn't mean new ones haven't taken their place. And while everything with youtube has signaled the end of an era for many, that doesn't mean a new, better one, can't arise.
As someone who jumps in and out of playing Minecraft I cannot agree more. Last time I fired it up was before 1.12 dropped and just came back about a week ago. From my own little perspective the game is still getting large content updates and I can still play it with my friends and that's all I need.
People, this thread is for discussing whether Minecraft is dying, it is not about this forum or the Minecraft subreddit. Please limit the discussion to Minecraft.
l think yes because of the fortnite - who would really think about minecraft with guns ?
Yet again, Fortnite is TOTALLY different game, even though it has some building aspect in it as well, it still isn't anywhere close to what Minecraft allows it's players to do. Fortnite lacks may aspects, that Minecraft has, just like Minecraft lacks many aspects, that Fortnite has. Fortnite is popular now just because of sudden craze for Battle Royale gamemode, it's not popular for being "competitor" for Minecraft. PERIOD.
Stop comparing Minecraft with Fortnite, as they are 2 totally different games.
And YET AGAIN, if Minecraft would be dying, there wouldn't be ANY new updates being released ON ANY platform/edition. But oh, look! 1.13 is being released for Java edition this week, AND 1.14 and 1.15, even some parts of 1.16 has been already planned out (of course we, the players don't know that much about them yet, as Mojang don't need to tell anything about them yet)!
Let me tell you SoullessSnowMan the differences in these 2 games:
Minecraft is 1st person survival (which has creative and adventure aspects as well, thanks to different gamemodes) sandbox game, that allows you to do, heck, pretty much anything you want. You want to build awesome castle? You can do that! You can explore Nether dimension? You can do that! You want to explore caves (which could always be bit bigger, than what they are now), guess what! YES! You can do THAT TOO!
Fortnite is not 1st person survival sandbox game that allows you to do whatever you want, Fortnite is mainly 3rd person Battle Royale multiplayer game, in which you need to kill other players to win the round. Yes, you can build whatever you want from "mats" you gather, but that's practically all, that is has in common with Minecraft. Minecraft is slow-ish paced game (at least in Survival, not in PvP), Fortnite is fast paced shooter.
See? 2 totally different games. And either game will not make the other die out. To be honest, I actually see Fortnite dying off way before Minecraft dies, thanks to all hype of Battle Royale games slowly dying off, just like other huge games with different gamemodes have been dying off before Battle Royale craze.
Minecraft is not going anywhere. Fortnite is. The Battle Royale genre will wither slowly away, thanks to every major game studio hopping aboard the craze and over-saturating the genre with dozens of games, that are just copies from previous one. That has happened before, and that happens again.
That being said, I can't deny, that Minecraft wouldn't "die off" on the future, as every game "dies" eventually. Of course there will always be few players, who will play it for as long, as it is possible to play. But it isn't dying yet. And looks like it isn't dying off any time soon either.
Ironically, people are already starting to say that Fortnite is dying as I've seen several such videos come up in my suggestion box recently - and it isn't even a year old yet (plus it heavily benefits from being free-to-play, just as China registered 100+ million registered users of a free version of Minecraft in less than a year); in fact searching YouTube for "fortnite dying" gave me nearly 7 million results:
IMO, people just like to say that game X is dying (which it will eventually), primarily because they have gotten bored of it themselves, or their friends or favorite YouTubers quit playing. Or a new update has "ruined" the game (the description on one of the videos listed above mentions a new patch - which is no different from what we see with Minecraft, yet the actual number of players who quit over updates like 1.9 is likely small).
By the way, this shows how many results there are for "minecraft dying" on YouTube - for a game which is over 10 times older than Fortnite (I was expecting to see many more results given how often claims that the game is dying come up):
People, this thread is for discussing whether Minecraft is dying, it is not about this forum or the Minecraft subreddit. Please limit the discussion to Minecraft.
With all due respect though the mcf/subreddit do have a lot to do with the game, as these are our two primary means of communication as a community, and the community's involvement with the game has everything to do with Minecraft and whether or not its dying. Just clarifying my previous talking points. Not meant as a deterrent but rather a talking piece to the subject of the thread itself.
I couldn't agree more. Games change over time, as is the case with Minecraft. People have been wanting an overhaul for combat, for example, for the longest time, and when Mojang implements an overhaul people became upset because suddenly the game required a little bit more skill rather than spamming a mouse. I'm sure there are some valid complaints from the pvp community about it, but that just goes to show that you need to be careful what you wish for. And the same can be said for other games like fortnight. Really it's just one of those cases where you can choose to adapt or get lost in the process. But in no way is that cause to suggest that the game is dying off, like you pointed out.
Quote: "That number [70 million active players per month] is from December and we actually increased from that, just haven’t released it since we put the 70M out since it seemed too soon and we don’t like to be too [chest] beat-y."
I don't think the game could die now since the best mods are in for the game Orespawn/MythicalC/Titans would prevent the game from dying
Not only the Mods help Minecraft live, since there are more people playing now than Alpha or Beta, in fact, in Beta the first million users were played, and many users said that it was the best time when there was few people playing Minecraft.
I think it is from the 1.4 when Minecraft had and has its golden age and not before.
I think what happened is that PC Minecraft peaked at around 1.7, it's not dying just that PC MC is no longer growing.
Not a mathematician, per se, but this interested me a bit.
While what you say may be true as far as sales themselves, don't you also have to consider other factors? Life isn't a vaccuum, and eventually, time passing (hype dying down) and the fact that there is a finite number of people (market saturation) come into play. While it may be true from one standpoint to say sales aren't "increasing" per se (I do not know Minecraft's sales so I'm not speaking of them literally) just because the curve doesn't trend upward, other factors need to be evaluated too, and on the whole, the continued success of this game this much later is truly amazing to me regardless.
There's also another view that, from the second something is concieved, it is dying, as eventually everything will, and the passing of time moves it closer to that. So, even if sales are upward now, it is still "dying".
Another view is that regardless of the sales, Minecraft itself IS growing if it retains a constant sales per day/week/month/year/whatever. Presuming 100 sales per day (constant), A player base of community of 1,000 people on day 10 is more than 500 people on day 5. Sure, it may work out that the rate at which the community size doubles dramatically drops at first, and then less so as time goes on (that's math, for you?), it's just in how you look at it.
Just many different ways to look at something. Informative post, but just wanted to offer up that (albeit perhaps somewhat incorrect) when others say "sales are increasing or indicating this", they may simply mean it in a way to show the game isn't in or near some drastic doom and gloom dying phase, because we've been hearing this for years (literally since 2012 when I joined and likely earlier). As always, it's the specific people, their circles, their views, etc. that have moved on, and hearing confirmation from others (and arguing those who disagree) helps put their own opinion at ease that they are over it. Collectively, this has been and still is one of the largest video game successes I have ever seen.
This is the oldest thread I could find (there could be older ones) that was clearly about the game being dead/dying with mods, updates not adding enough content, and personal boredom with the game all mentioned - and the game wasn't even fully released yet (the current version was Beta 1.7.2):
Could Minecraft be...Dead
TheMasterCaver's First World - possibly the most caved-out world in Minecraft history - includes world download.
TheMasterCaver's World - my own version of Minecraft largely based on my views of how the game should have evolved since 1.6.4.
Why do I still play in 1.6.4?
Dying because Mods?
I don't like Mods, but the Beta 1.7 and his pistons are Minecraft better.
That not kill Minecraft.
Its sales still aren't increasing very much according to the graph (though I do admit the graph isn't up-to-date). So if you had a product that sold 2 copies by the end of year 1 and 3 copies by the end of year 2, then you sold 1 copy between year 1 and year 2, right? I'm applying that logic to the graph.
After looking at the graph using an image editor, I found that the line when up by these numbers of pixels each year.
2012: 95 pixels
2013: 108 pixels
2014: 94 pixels
2015: 89 pixels
The graph's scale is 5000000 copies to 111 pixels, so these are the copies sold per year.
2012: 4279279 copies
2013: 4864865 copies
2014: 4234234 copies
2015: 4009009 copies
So between 2012 and 2015, the copies sold each year actually decreased slightly. Of course, I don't have good information for 2016 or 2017, so Minecraft could possibly have gotten back on track during those 2 years.
If you follow your heart, it will only lead to your arteries.
And when will you realize that graph is only for Java edition, which represents a tiny fraction of all sales and the player base these days (and actually has fallen behind since 2012)?
Check out this statement from an article last year:
They clearly attribute continued increases in sales and player counts to the Windows 10 / Bedrock edition. How else can you explain an increase of 34 million monthly active players since June 2016 - when Java has only sold 28.5 million copies altogether (and how many of those have moved on to Windows 10; the free copy that you can get does not count towards sales)?
TheMasterCaver's First World - possibly the most caved-out world in Minecraft history - includes world download.
TheMasterCaver's World - my own version of Minecraft largely based on my views of how the game should have evolved since 1.6.4.
Why do I still play in 1.6.4?
In my eyes, the Win10 was effort to ween off existing players and new players off Java so MS didn't have pay Orcale the owners of Java any kind money and keep total control of their multi-million dollar game they paid perhaps WAY TOO MUCH FOR.
Sure, Java isn't most stable software out there. It could be exploited if your not careful, but it ability to be made into so much more. I'm only heard that C+++ version of Minecraft aka Win10 is not easy at all to modify. MS does have history of not liking people monkey around with ThEIR CODE.
I'm actually surprised 1.13 is coming out for Java at all.
I just came across this article:
If those were paid Minecraft would now be the best-selling game of all time.
TheMasterCaver's First World - possibly the most caved-out world in Minecraft history - includes world download.
TheMasterCaver's World - my own version of Minecraft largely based on my views of how the game should have evolved since 1.6.4.
Why do I still play in 1.6.4?
In all honesty it sounds like people who claim that the game is dying are just trying to use that to justify their own burnout of the game. Burnout is normal after extended amounts of play time. I started playing the game a few weeks before the 1.6 update dropped over five years ago, and in that time I've taken multiple breaks from the game, or tried out different mod packs and such. There are very few games out there that are still even popular after years of development since launch. Things get stale every now and then. Take a step back. Go play some different games. Maybe try the game again in a few months. Or don't come back at all. But don't just assume the game is a lost cause because of it. Yes, the golden era of the game is gone, and while many of the og youtubers who made content about the game are gone, that doesn't mean new ones haven't taken their place. And while everything with youtube has signaled the end of an era for many, that doesn't mean a new, better one, can't arise.
As someone who jumps in and out of playing Minecraft I cannot agree more. Last time I fired it up was before 1.12 dropped and just came back about a week ago. From my own little perspective the game is still getting large content updates and I can still play it with my friends and that's all I need.
People, this thread is for discussing whether Minecraft is dying, it is not about this forum or the Minecraft subreddit. Please limit the discussion to Minecraft.
- sunperp
l think yes because of the fortnite - who would really think about minecraft with guns ?
Yet again, Fortnite is TOTALLY different game, even though it has some building aspect in it as well, it still isn't anywhere close to what Minecraft allows it's players to do. Fortnite lacks may aspects, that Minecraft has, just like Minecraft lacks many aspects, that Fortnite has. Fortnite is popular now just because of sudden craze for Battle Royale gamemode, it's not popular for being "competitor" for Minecraft. PERIOD.
Stop comparing Minecraft with Fortnite, as they are 2 totally different games.
And YET AGAIN, if Minecraft would be dying, there wouldn't be ANY new updates being released ON ANY platform/edition. But oh, look! 1.13 is being released for Java edition this week, AND 1.14 and 1.15, even some parts of 1.16 has been already planned out (of course we, the players don't know that much about them yet, as Mojang don't need to tell anything about them yet)!
Let me tell you SoullessSnowMan the differences in these 2 games:
Minecraft is 1st person survival (which has creative and adventure aspects as well, thanks to different gamemodes) sandbox game, that allows you to do, heck, pretty much anything you want. You want to build awesome castle? You can do that! You can explore Nether dimension? You can do that! You want to explore caves (which could always be bit bigger, than what they are now), guess what! YES! You can do THAT TOO!
Fortnite is not 1st person survival sandbox game that allows you to do whatever you want, Fortnite is mainly 3rd person Battle Royale multiplayer game, in which you need to kill other players to win the round. Yes, you can build whatever you want from "mats" you gather, but that's practically all, that is has in common with Minecraft. Minecraft is slow-ish paced game (at least in Survival, not in PvP), Fortnite is fast paced shooter.
See? 2 totally different games. And either game will not make the other die out. To be honest, I actually see Fortnite dying off way before Minecraft dies, thanks to all hype of Battle Royale games slowly dying off, just like other huge games with different gamemodes have been dying off before Battle Royale craze.
Minecraft is not going anywhere. Fortnite is. The Battle Royale genre will wither slowly away, thanks to every major game studio hopping aboard the craze and over-saturating the genre with dozens of games, that are just copies from previous one. That has happened before, and that happens again.
That being said, I can't deny, that Minecraft wouldn't "die off" on the future, as every game "dies" eventually. Of course there will always be few players, who will play it for as long, as it is possible to play. But it isn't dying yet. And looks like it isn't dying off any time soon either.
Ironically, people are already starting to say that Fortnite is dying as I've seen several such videos come up in my suggestion box recently - and it isn't even a year old yet (plus it heavily benefits from being free-to-play, just as China registered 100+ million registered users of a free version of Minecraft in less than a year); in fact searching YouTube for "fortnite dying" gave me nearly 7 million results:
IMO, people just like to say that game X is dying (which it will eventually), primarily because they have gotten bored of it themselves, or their friends or favorite YouTubers quit playing. Or a new update has "ruined" the game (the description on one of the videos listed above mentions a new patch - which is no different from what we see with Minecraft, yet the actual number of players who quit over updates like 1.9 is likely small).
By the way, this shows how many results there are for "minecraft dying" on YouTube - for a game which is over 10 times older than Fortnite (I was expecting to see many more results given how often claims that the game is dying come up):
TheMasterCaver's First World - possibly the most caved-out world in Minecraft history - includes world download.
TheMasterCaver's World - my own version of Minecraft largely based on my views of how the game should have evolved since 1.6.4.
Why do I still play in 1.6.4?
I am *SO OVER* that game known as "Life". I really think that game is dying these days.
With all due respect though the mcf/subreddit do have a lot to do with the game, as these are our two primary means of communication as a community, and the community's involvement with the game has everything to do with Minecraft and whether or not its dying. Just clarifying my previous talking points. Not meant as a deterrent but rather a talking piece to the subject of the thread itself.
I couldn't agree more. Games change over time, as is the case with Minecraft. People have been wanting an overhaul for combat, for example, for the longest time, and when Mojang implements an overhaul people became upset because suddenly the game required a little bit more skill rather than spamming a mouse. I'm sure there are some valid complaints from the pvp community about it, but that just goes to show that you need to be careful what you wish for. And the same can be said for other games like fortnight. Really it's just one of those cases where you can choose to adapt or get lost in the process. But in no way is that cause to suggest that the game is dying off, like you pointed out.
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Quote: "That number [70 million active players per month] is from December and we actually increased from that, just haven’t released it since we put the 70M out since it seemed too soon and we don’t like to be too [chest] beat-y."
Minecraft. Dying. Not hardly.
Not only the Mods help Minecraft live, since there are more people playing now than Alpha or Beta, in fact, in Beta the first million users were played, and many users said that it was the best time when there was few people playing Minecraft.
I think it is from the 1.4 when Minecraft had and has its golden age and not before.